Research Agenda: Islam and Intergenerational Justice

by Ahmed Ghoor and Imaan Khadir

Aim / Rationale

In 1997, UNESCO released a declaration on the responsibility of present generations towards future generations. Despite potentially being an essential cause area, not much thought and attention seem to have been given to future generations in current Muslim communities outside of resource conservation (Furber, 2012)¹. The research questions below seek to investigate the attitudes of Muslim communities and Islamic intellectual history towards the moral significance of future generations. Academic discussions on the topic can also be found in writings on longtermism and intergenerational justice.

The questions outlined are crucial for numerous reasons. Longtermism, specifically, is the ethical view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. One primary reason is illustrated in the following thought experiment: “Imagine burying broken glass in a forest. In one possible future, a child steps on the glass in 5 years’ time, and hurts herself. In a different possible future, a child steps on the glass in 500 years’ time and hurts herself just as much” (Parfit 1984; Moorhouse 2021). Should we diminish our vigilance toward the impacts of our choices solely due to their extended temporal horizon? The foundation of longtermism lies in recognising the equal gravity of both scenarios.

Furthermore, longtermists argue that while we may not be sure how long humankind will last, mammalian species generally survive for an average of 500,000 years, suggesting we might have about 200,000 years to live, if not more (Barnosky et al., 2011). Karnofsky (2021) posits that the 21st century may be the most pivotal in human history, given the rapid economic and technological growth. Regardless of the time ahead of us, we currently possess significant potential to influence the future. Earlier generations did not have the ability to render extinct or severely endanger future generations of humans or animals (Furber, 2012). Despite this, there’s a general lack of attention on the far future, and notably, we seldom “worry about the catastrophes that could imperil civilisation” and the potential happiness and well-being we might offer future generations (McAskill, 2023).

Shaykh Musa Furber, a Muslim scholar based in Malaysia, is one of the few Muslim thinkers who have tackled this question directly. He highlighted that religious discourse about the ethical considerations of the present generation to future ones is “limited to the problem of saving natural resources” (Furber, 2012). It does not focus on the core questions around the moral significance of future generations, their specific rights, the extent of our obligations towards them or any frameworks for dealing with dilemmas and trade-offs. This narrow focus on resource conservation, while important, does not encompass the broader ethical landscape that needs to be addressed when considering our responsibilities to those who will come after us and the implications of that on other cause areas of intergenerational justice and longtermism.

A concept that is often drawn on in these discussions is the concept of “moral circles”—boundaries within which we view others as worthy of moral concern (Burke, 1790; Lecky, 1869; Singer, 1981). For instance, while most parents feel a moral obligation to provide for their children, they might not feel the same obligation towards a stranger’s child (Singer, 1981). This concept of moral circles can explain various societal behaviors and biases, such as the anti-Arab sentiment in the U.S. post the September 11 attacks (Reed & Aquino, 2003). The size of these moral circles can even vary based on one’s mindset (Laham, 2009). The process of increasing the number and type of entities given moral consideration over time is termed “moral circle expansion.” Throughout history, many entities, including people of different genders, nationalities, races, and ethnic groups, have entered and exited these moral circles. Advocates of longtermism include people born in a different time period, including the far future, within their moral circle.

Answering the research questions that follow can help to engage in a meaningful collaboration with Muslim communities and support Muslim thinkers and activists passionate about long-term risk mitigation. Given that Muslims make up 20% of the global population, this could go a long way in helping to address long-term global catastrophic risks, including the mitigation of existential threats to humanity.

Key concepts

Future Generations, Longtermism, Intergenerational Justice, Islamic Environmental Ethics.

Research Topics

Current perceptions of the Muslim community

Understanding the baseline sentiment and the prevalence of discussions within the Muslim community regarding our obligations to future generations could provide insight into the level of intersection between current Muslim and Longtermist priorities. This could inform advocacy, education and outreach, as well as potentially highlight where there’s alignment and/or divergence with broader Islamic ethical principles. Potential sub-questions:

• Do Muslim groups care about future people?
• How much do Muslim groups care about the far future?
• To what extent is the concept of intergenerational justice addressed within discussions in Muslim communities?
• How do Muslim communities perceive their moral responsibilities toward future generations?

Alignment of understandings of Islam with core Longtermism claims

There are several definitions for the term “Longtermism” articulated by Will MacAskill, Toby Ord and Nick Bostrom and each may warrant a separate investigation. MacAskill, who seems to have originally coined the term, established four core claims/premises for Longtermism in 2020 (MacAskill, 2020)². As a starting point, it may be worth investigating to what extent understandings of Islam align with these four:

1. Future people matter morally.
   • Arguments may need to separate between specific and potential individuals.
2. There are (in expectation) vast numbers of future people.
   • Islamic Eschatological and Apocalyptical thought might be relevant here.
3. Future people are utterly disenfranchised.
   • EA for Christians wrote an article critiquing this from a Christian perspective (Roser, 2019). Similar thoughts might be prevalent in some Islamic schools of thought.
4. There are ways (in expectation) to positively impact the very long run.
   • Theologically deterministic schools might critique this notion.

Moral Concern and Islamic Thought

Both theories of Islamic Ethics and Effective Altruism discuss the boundaries of our moral consideration. Investigating how the ‘moral circle’ concept is understood, expanded, or restricted in both fields to identify areas of convergence and divergence could provide a basis for subsequent inquiries and cross-disciplinary dialogues. Potential sub-topics:

• Broad definitions/descriptions of moral concern from Islamic perspectives
• Discuss the concept of moral worth/value in Islamic thought: is promoting the well-being of individuals closer in time considered a greater moral imperative?
• The (Expanding) Moral Circle – explore similarities and differences between and within Islamic and Effective Altruist thinking on this topic.

Islam and Longtermism

Exploring the extent to which, and in what ways, understandings of Islam already articulate the ideas of Longtermism could help to advocate for future generations within Muslim communities and provide a common ground for collaboration and and mutual enrichment. 

• From an Islamic perspective, do Muslims have a duty to future generations? Why/why not?
• How does the Islamic concept of Sadaqah Jariyah, ongoing charity, or the waqf relate to the effective altruist idea of long-term impact? 
• The idea of ‘maximising impact’ in Islam – similarities and differences between Islamic thinking and utilitarianism.
  • Discuss the concept of Moral Prioritisation in the discipline of Maqasid Al-Sharia.
    • Maqasid Al-Sharia, or the objectives of Islamic Law, offers a prioritisation of values and principles. Investigating this prioritisation can offer insights into how Islamic teachings might approach the moral dilemmas inherent in Longtermism. For example, under some level of uncertainty, how much should we sacrifice today, for the benefit of potential generations in the future, given the extent to which we should be prioritising the latter’s concerns (under some level of uncertainty of their existence) from a Maqasid perspective? 
  • How might Islamic concepts of ‘public/common good’ or striving for Ihsan (excellence) relate to maximising impact?
    • Islamic notions of striving for the common good and Ihsan (excellence) encapsulate the idea of creating substantial and meaningful change. Putting these ideas in conversation with one another could pave the way for more ethical endeavours.

Humans as vicegerents (khalifa) of Allah on Earth

Most of the current literature related to future generations in Islam seem to approach the topic from this angle. The concept of humans as ‘Khalifa’ or vicegerents on Earth is a profound and pivotal theme in Islamic theology and ethics. It places humans not as mere inhabitants of this world but as its custodians. As vicegerents, understanding the depth and breadth of our responsibilities is fundamental. 

• What duties, responsibilities and moral imperatives might this confer upon us?
  • towards other humans/animals alive today
  • towards other humans/animals in the future
  • towards the planet itself
    • Climate change
    • X-risk

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The questions/topics below are more exploratory and possibly a bit more controversial:

Islam and Backwards-looking Retributive Intergenerational Justice

Longtermist thought argues that the time period within which one is born should not affect their moral significance. Put differently, we should consider the interests of people born in a different time period. Baked into these arguments, however, are the assumptions that

• We are primarily forward-looking in that we are concerned with enabling others to do better in the future.
• We are looking at the world through the lens of individual needs and welfare rather than through other things we might inherently value, such as injustice, inequality, power and exploitation (Rubenstein, 2016).

However, according to Hasan (2007), unless the victims forgive their oppressors, Islam enjoins Retributive and Relational Justice in addition to the forward-looking Distributive Justice upon which much of Longtermism and other EA thought seem to be built (see for e.g MacAskill, 2019; Todd, 2021; Crisp and Pummer, 2020).

Drawing on these broader definitions of intergenerational justice (retributive, relational and backwards-looking), what might that mean for Muslims’ obligations to other generations (past and future)?

• e.g. by advocating for amends for past wrongs made by individuals or groups through compensation or other methods while also working to prevent such errors in the future (Crisp and Pummer, 2020). This could provide an interesting avenue for EA literature to engage with contemporary debates on effective redistribution of stolen land, and other capital, in post-colonial contexts.

Considering the past is not an entirely new concept within the literature. In The Precipice, Toby Ord (2021) argues that “to neglect existential risk might thus be to wrong not only the people of the future” but to also betray our past. “Betray the trust they placed in us, their heirs”. He didn’t, however, lay out the implications of this when combined with broader definitions of “the good/harm to be pursued/avoided”.

Individual vs Communal Obligation to Future Generations

It has been argued that EA, and Longtermism by extension, often assume an “overly narrow form of moral individualism” where “the individual, not the community, class or state, is the proper object of moral theorizing” (Srinivasan, 2015). The Islamic legal theory concepts of Fardh-Kifaya (Communal Obligation) and Fardh-Aýn (Individual Obligation) to categorise rulings could be expanded and used as a theoretical framework to account for this and potentially present a novel contribution to the Longtermism literature.

Towards developing an Islamic framework for grappling with Longtermism dilemmas

“The dilemma presented by an (alleged) obligation to future generations arises when it becomes clear that we must, in the present, choose between a policy or course of action which would have beneficial effects for the present generation but harmful effects upon future generations,” or vice-versa (Furber, 2012).

EA thinkers often suggest using an Expected Value (EV) calculation, where the probability of the risk being realised is multiplied by the harm of the risk if realised. This framework can be critiqued for its susceptibility to very low probability existential risks dwarfing immediate harms (Singer, 2021), having mistakes in its “moral mathematics” (Thorstad, 2023) and justifying a shift in the allocation of resources from the poorest of the poor in the Global South (early EA) to elite college-educated graduates in the Global North working on causes like AI Safety. The last reason is not a direct critique of the EV framework but a potential reason to look at the framework critically (considering the intersection of material interests and the source of the knowledge production).

Maqasid Al-Sharia seems like a promising theoretical framework that can be developed. Furber (2012) draws heavily on Ibn Ashur and Shatibi, whose contributions to the field are still relevant but arguably have some limitations due to the time in which they were produced, specifically around the lack of employment of statistical forecasting techniques needed when dealing with uncertainty. Dr. Abdelmajid Najar, however, considers this and his work may be a good theoretical framework to adapt or potentially use as-is to engage with the questions around Future Generations.

Islamic values that would be beneficial to proactively lock-in.

Will MacAskill points out the contingency of values that we take for granted and how easy it is for an alternative value to get locked in and change the course of civilisation. An example is child infanticide which was a normal practice before Christianity became the dominant religion and changed that.

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the world and makes up 20% of the world’s population. Given the potential for the influence of Muslims and Islamic values on value lock-in in the world:

• Are there any neglected Islamic values in the tradition that it may be beneficial to revive in the Muslim community, for the benefit of future generations?
• Are there any prominent Islamic values that it may be beneficial to advocate to the rest of the world, for the benefit of future generations?

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References

Aslam, Z. (2023). Unveiling the Longtermism Framework in Islam: Urging Muslims to Embrace Future-Oriented Values through ‘Islamic Longtermism’.  https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sgSwwTe4mG4uP36e/unveiling-the-longtermism-framework-in-islam-urging-muslims 

Barnosky, A. D., Matzke, N., Tomiya, S., Wogan, G. O. U., Swartz, B., Quental, T. B., Marshall, C., McGuire, J. L., Lindsey, E. L., Maguire, K. C., Mersey, B., & Ferrer, E. A. (2011). Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature, 471(7336), Article 7336. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09678

Burke, E. (1790). Reflections on the revolution in France. Dodsley.

Christians, E. A. for. (2022, November 5). A Christian Case against Longtermism. Christ and Counterfactuals (blog). https://christandcounterfactuals.substack.com/p/a-christian-case-against-longtermism

Crisp, R., & Pummer, T. (2020). Effective Justice. Journal of Moral Philosophy, 17(4), 398–415. https://doi.org/10.1163/17455243-20193133

Furber, M. (2012). Obligations to Future Generations: A Shariʻah Perspective (Tabah Papers Series, no. 6). Tabah Foundation.

Hasan, S. (2007). Islamic Concept of Social Justice: Its Possible Contribution to Ensuring Harmony and Peaceful Coexistence in a Globalised World. Macquarie Law Journal, 7, 167.

Laham, S. M. (2009). Expanding the moral circle: Inclusion and exclusion mindsets and the circle of moral regard. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 45(1), 250–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2008.08.012

Lecky, W. E. H. (1869). History of European morals from Augustus to Charlemagne (Vol. 1). Longmans, Green and Co.

Longtermism: An Introduction | Effective Altruism. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.effectivealtruism.org/articles/longtermism

MacAskill, W. (2019). Longtermism. Retrieved from https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qZyshHCNkjs3TvSem/longtermism 

MacAskill, W. (2019). The Definition of Effective Altruism. In H. Greaves & T. Pummer (Eds.), Effective Altruism: Philosophical Issues (p. 0). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198841364.003.0001

MacAskill, W. (2023). What We Owe The Future.

Ord, T. (2021). The Precipice.

Parfit, D. (1986). Reasons and Persons. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/019824908X.001.0001

Reed, A., & Aquino, K. F. (2003). Moral identity and the expanding circle of moral regard toward out-groups. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 84(6), 1270–1286. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.84.6.1270

Rubenstein, J. C. (2016). The Lessons of Effective Altruism. Ethics and International Affairs, 30(4), 511–526.

Singer, P. (1981). The Expanding Circle: Ethics, Evolution, and Moral Progress. Princeton University Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7sg4n

Srinivasan, A. (2015, September 23). Stop the Robot Apocalypse [Review of Doing Good Better: Effective Altruism and a Radical New Way to Make a Difference, by W. MacAskill]. London Review of Books, 37(18). https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v37/n18/amia-srinivasan/stop-the-robot-apocalypse

The Hinge of History by Peter Singer—Project Syndicate. (2021). Retrieved from https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ethical-implications-of-focusing-on-extinction-risk-by-peter-singer-2021-10

The ‘most important century’ blog post series. (2021, September 24). Cold Takes. https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/

Thorstad, D. (2023). Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk. Global Priorities Institute. https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/david-thorstad-three-mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk/

What is social impact? A definition. (2021). 80,000 Hours. Retrieved from https://80000hours.org/articles/what-is-social-impact-definition/What we owe the future | Will MacAskill—YouTube. (2020). Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCpFsvYI-7Y

1. One recent exception is a short blog post on “Unveiling the Longtermism Framework in Islam: Urging Muslims to Embrace Future-Oriented Values through ‘Islamic Longtermism’” by  Zayn Aslam (Aslam, 2023) ↩︎
2.  Note that MacAskill has himself used different definitions for Longtermism over the years and makes a distinction between “Longtermism”, “Strong Longtermism” and “Very Strong Longtermism”. (MacAskill, 2019) ↩︎